"If It Sounds Too Good To be True, It Probably Is." -- US Postal Service, Circa 1970

I had an epiphany earlier today, while reading the Wall Street Journal about more Obamacare woes.

A not unexpected outcome

I have written previously about what the Administration did with the software programming for the healthcare.gov website.  And I will predict here again that the problems will not be solved by the end of November.  I predict that the website will not be ready until March 2014 or later, because serious software problems are not fixable in time frames less than 4-6 months;  this comes from personal experience.  Anyone having done program management for Government IT projects will concur.  And adding bodies to the problem will not hasten success.  

But today's lesson is not about fixing large government IT programs.  It is about a common-sense lesson that more mundane parts of the Government, namely the US Postal Service, used to teach.  I remember reading this on a USPS circular back when I was a young pup:

"If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is."

The context, in the early 1970s, was mail fraud. Back then hucksters were trying to sell, in magazine advertisements, all sorts of screwy gadgets and things.  The one I loved best was a type of auto engine that turned burned water for fuel instead of gasoline -- "The Amazing Technical Secret that the Car Companies Refuse to Let Your Know."  The Post Office was giving advice that every father in those days was giving to his children.

Fast forward to 2009.  The promises of Obamacare were:

• Health coverage for more than 30 million uninsured people
• No increase in taxes
• Not one dime of increase to the federal deficit
• Reduced medical costs ("bending the cost curve down")
• Premium savings of up to $2,500 annually 
• Cheaper than your cell phone bill
• If you like your plan you can keep it ("period -- end of story")
• If you like your doctor you can keep him

Not one of these promises will be kept in the end.  Today's press release by Breitbart tallied 100,000 Obamacare signups during the first month while 5,000,000 have received cancellation notices;  a net production of misery of 4,900,000. Once the employer mandate kicks in next year, this disparity will worsen.  One estimate, by Forbes, proclaimed that the number of Americans losing their current coverage will total 93 million.  The Obamacare wonks who wrote this legislation will have been off in their estimates by, only, about 63 million.  "Close enough for government work," as my buddies in the defense industry used to joke.

"If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is."

All this  mess would have been avoided had the nation observed such simple, homespun, government-endorsed wisdom back in 2009.  If only we had listened to the humble advice of our mailman.  If only, if only.